Greg’s Gambling Lines: NFL and NCAA acton for October 4-7

So I didn’t do too well last week. I went 1-4 to start, but I went 3-2 in NFL action the next day, and I would’ve been 5-0 if the scores of the 4 PM games had held with two minutes to go. Look, it happens, but this weekend is going to be a lot of fun for football fans such as myself. Why? Cause this weekend, we have five college games on Saturday being played between two Top 25 teams, including two in the SEC that involve teams only in the Top Ten. This weekend is going to be a vital one in college football, and you are going to see a lot of  movement in the Coaches and AP polls on Sunday. We have some great NFL action as well, and I think we’re going to have a bit of fun along the way.

Note: All picks will be against the spread, and all odds, unless otherwise noted, are -110 (or 10/11). That means you need to bet $110 to win $100, and the ratio stays the same for however much you bet.

College Football Saturday:

Illinois (+14.5) at Wisconsin

Wisconsin has been in close games all year, and they’re coming off of a really bad collapse on Saturday Night in Lincoln. The Badgers have the look of a team in disarray, and while they will not be intimidated by the Illini, they’re in a bit of trouble right now. Illinois is coming off of a bad loss at home to Penn State, but they’ve looked solid on both sides of the ball and should be able to give Wisconsin a run for their money. Take the points here.

North Carolina State (+15) v Florida State

Call me insane, but I’ve got a hunch on this one. After watching Florida State the last couple of weeks, you can tell that they are a very good team that can compete with anybody in the country. They also happen to have very good trends in regards to games against the Wolfpack, having won their last 5 against NC State and 4 of the last 5 away to NC State. But NC State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home, and they’ll be raring to go against the Seminoles. I’m going to take the points here.

**Parlay** #12 Ohio State (-3.5) v #21 Nebraska, Under 57.5 (+260)

I hope you guys take my advice when I pick Ohio State games, because if there is one college team that I know, it’s the Buckeyes. Last week they had a strong showing against the Spartans and pulled out a one-point win in East Lansing to go to 5-0. This weekend, they host Nebraska, who is coming off of a miraculous 30-27 comeback win against Wisconsin. Last year, the Buckeyes dominated in Lincoln for the first 35 minutes. It was 27-6 five minutes into the 3rd. Then Braxton Miller got injured and fumbled the ball, sparking a Nebraska comeback for the ages, as they pulled it out 34-27. Don’t expect that to happen again this year, as the Buckeyes are 22-3 in their last 25 at Ohio Stadium, and they just love playing under the lights. Lay the points and take the under as the Buckeyes pull this one out and go to 6-0.

**7-point Teaser Pick** #10 Florida (+9.5) v #4 LSU, Over 35.5 (-130)

This is a HUGE game in The Swamp. 5-0 LSU visits 4-0 Florida in a Top Ten showdown. This game could have SEC and National Title implications on the line. It doesn’t get much better than this. Now, with both defenses playing very strong this season, the belief is that this will be a low-scoring game. Here’s a funny trend though: 4 of the last 5 games between these two teams has seen the total go over the Vegas line. Why? Because these teams have a tendency to play low-scoring games against each other before going guns blazing against one another. Another funny stat is that these games tend to be very tight in the Swamp. Teaser the two, take Florida +9.5 & lower the over/under bar to just over 5 TDs, and enjoy the game.

**7-point Teaser Pick** #2 Oregon (-17.5) v #24 Washington, Under 72 (-130)

Big rivalry game in Eugene as the Ducks and Huskies face off. Look, I know it’s tempting to take the over here, but I’m gonna let you in on a little secret: the total has been under the Vegas line 6 of the last 9 times these teams have played each other. Take the under and lay the points here, but just to be safe, I’m going to teaser it and pray for the best.

Quick disclaimer on these next two: the only reason I’m picking these two games at all is because of the fact that they are big games. I don’t like the prospects for these at all, but I’m just putting it down on paper because of the massive interest in these games on Saturday.

#5 Georgia at #6 South Carolina Over 53.5 

Another game between two undefeated SEC teams, with this one taking place in Columbia. The winner of this game will be in the drivers’ seat in the SEC East race should Florida lose to LSU. Both teams have high-potent offenses and will be able to move the ball efficiently against the other side’s defense. It’ll be a very exciting game, and I expect it to be a high-scoring affair. Take the over.

#8 West Virginia at #11 Texas Over 73.5

Just take the over. Do not fuck with Geno Smith and West Virginia. Just take the fucking over. This game will be a shootout, just fucking lay the points.

NFL Sunday (Rapidfire)

**Parlay** Green Bay (-7.5) at Indianapolis, Over 48

Kansas City (+7) v Baltimore, Under 46

Pittsburgh (-3.5) v Philadelphia, Over 43

San Francisco (-11) v Buffalo, Under 44.5

Alright, so much for that. Have a good weekend everybody, and remember: If you actually bet these picks, then you deserve what happens.

Follow Greg on Twitter @njny